My Political Predictions for the Century

I’m not going to say anything about the 2008 Presidential election save one fairly obvious point. But I sincerely think most or all of the following will turn out to be right:

1. The United States will have a Jewish President and a Hispanic President before it has a black President (in particular, Condi Rice won’t be the next President). It’s entirely possible it’ll also have an Asian President before a black President, but I’m not sure.

2. By 2030, the countries that comprise the EU, or at least a large subset of them, will form a US-like federation.

3. By the end of the century, the Middle East will be seen as part of the West. Just like now the West’s religions are Protestantism and Catholicism, and to some extent Judaism, so will its religions be Christianity and Islam in 2100. None of this will materially change what are now called Western values; the Middle East will just produce a Muslim version of them in the same way southern Europe produced a Catholic version after World War Two.

4. Russia will either remain a backwater, or join the EU. It will not become a great power again, except as part of Europe.

5. Out of the next 15 Presidents of the United States, at least 5 will be female.

6. Urbanization in India will make its level of gender equality converge to at least the Western level. It’s entirely possible India will overtake Europe as the most gender-equal region in the world in this century, but I’m not sure.

7. By 2050, China’s power will give ethnic Chinese, and to some extent other Asians, the same global power that whites enjoy now. In particular, any white discrimination against Asians will have at most the same capability of oppressing as Asian discrimination against whites.

8. By 2030, non-Scandinavian Europe will overtake the US in inequality and entrenched classism. Although I suspect it’ll be both due to rightward movement in Europe and leftward movement in the US, I make no prediction that that will be the case, rather than the US moving rightward and Europe moving rightward even more.

10 Responses to My Political Predictions for the Century

  1. Katie Kish says:

    Bah
    I think 6 is total hogwash and 5 is just a little less ridiculous. But I really have no hope for America’s future with women. I think its only going to get progressively worse… imo.

    I guess according to 8 the only other place I’d live is Sweden.

    …How much of Man-hat island do you think will be left by the end of the century😉 i may *have* to move to sweden since those are the only 2 places I’ll live.

    I think the main problem for the next century is going to be based around the environment. …Oil crisis, increased problems with global warming and a huge lack of resources.

  2. SLC says:

    So Mr. Levy has predicted that Barack Obama will either not be the Democratic candidate for president in 2008, or if he is will not be elected.

  3. Deep Thought says:

    what does “entrenched classism” *mean*?

  4. Alon Levy says:

    The US has less income mobility than France, Germany, Canada, and every Scandinavian state, and slightly more than Britain (I haven’t seen comparisons to other first-world countries).

  5. Alon Levy says:

    And yes, I’m pretty sure Obama won’t run for President anytime soon. Remember that Ann Richards got to be keynote speaker in 1988. She still didn’t get anywhere higher than state-level office.

  6. Stentor says:

    WRT #7, I think that may be mostly true at the global scale, but that would if anything worsen Asian oppression within the US, since whites will see China as The Enemy.

  7. gordo says:

    Alon–

    Your comparison of Obama to Richards is just silly. Clinton once gave the keynote address. Does that mean he’ll never be president, either?

    At any rate, there will be few enough presidents in the coming century that it’s entirely possible that they will all be white Christian men. That’s not likely, but my point is that when you’re talking about a sample group that small, you’re just shooting in the dark.

    ***

    2030 is way too early for the EU to become a single nation. Also, the United States is not a federation, but a single nation. Ask any confederate if you have doubts on that point.

    ***

    If Russia wants to joint the EU, it had better hurry. Remember, they only have until 2030!

    ***

    Russia can become a great power without joining the EU, especially if you’re right about China

    ***

    There will be more than 15 presidents

  8. Alon Levy says:

    Your comparison of Obama to Richards is just silly. Clinton once gave the keynote address. Does that mean he’ll never be president, either?

    No, it doesn’t. But it means that his rising-star status won’t necessarily translate to being President someday.

    2030 is way too early for the EU to become a single nation. Also, the United States is not a federation, but a single nation. Ask any confederate if you have doubts on that point.

    I mean a federation like the early US. For example, the EU considers the right to secede absolute.

    There will be more than 15 presidents

    I know. All I’m saying is that out of the next 15 Presidents, 5 or more will be female.

  9. There is absolutely no way that Russia, for long a secret police state and still a place where the secret police are powerful and have a looooong history of mutual hostility with western liberal democracies, will ever integrate with nations like France and England, which are hugely powerful in the EU.

    It has been said recently that Russia has taken advantage of the US’ withdrawal from the world stage (Iraq and Afghanistan being loud exceptions that prove the rule), to consolidate a regional sphere of influence with the ‘Stans. The same word has said that China is consolidating spheres of influence wherever neat-to-eat natural resources are sold. I believe this.

    However, China is not going to be the up-and-coming dragon everyone thinks it will. It will always be important, but if you want a dynamo, look to places like South Korea. I have been, and will be again, ridiculed for saying so, because it is a small country with no natural resources. So was Venice. But South Korea’s manufacturing sector has grown rather noteworthy, I think (they’re making good stuff), and although they’re not yet Taiwan, I think they are a nimble, efficient actor. If you want up-and-coming, don’t think behemoth–think nimble. If, as could happen, the North Korean war simply bypasses South Korea this time, and if instead the North lashes out at Japan when they feel threatened by the US (as Japan, as such an important part of our supply chain, is an Achilles’ heel for the US against North Korea), then South Korea could clean up.

    Another small Asian actor could surprise us, given time.

  10. […] We are using Google ™ as well as other sources to prove that the search engine penetration is so high as to predict election outcomes. […]

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