Porn and Rape

Anyone who has had the misfortune of arguing with a sex-negative radical feminist about anything that could tangetially be related to porn, rape, or sex, will know about all the shoddy studies purporting to prove a positive link between porn consumption and rape. Avedon Carol has done a tremendous job at refuting the main ones, but then again PZ has refuted many anti-evolution arguments and yet their supporters still promulgate them.

Now, adding to a body of studies that look at porn and rape but fail to find a positive correlation, Undernews reports a new study showing a negative correlation.

The incidence of rape in the United States has declined 85% in the past 25 years while access to pornography has become freely available to teenagers and adults. The Nixon and Reagan Commissions tried to show that exposure to pornographic materials produced social violence. The reverse may be true: that pornography has reduced social violence. . . The decline [is] steeper than the stock market crash that led to the Great Depression. . . There were 2.7 rapes for every 1,000 people in 1980; by 2004, the same survey found the rate had decreased to 0.4 per 1000 people. . .

(…)

National trends are one thing; what do the figures for the states show? From data compiled by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration in 2001, the four states with the lowest per capita access to the internet were Arkansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, and West Virginia. The four states with the highest internet access were Alaska, Colorado, New Jersey, and Washington. . .

While the nationwide incidence of rape was showing a drastic decline, the incidence of rape in the four states having the least access to the internet showed an actual increase in rape over the same time period. This result was almost too clear and convincing, so to check it I compiled figures for the four states having the most access to the internet. Three out of four of these states showed declines (in New Jersey, an almost 50% decline). Alaska was an anomaly: it increased both in internet access and incidence of rape. However, the population of Alaska is less than one-tenth that of the other three states in its category.

Ann Bartow says that this study is shoddy for a variety of reasons, not including the two that, judging by what Undernews posted, are the most damning. The main problem with her criticism is that she uses the wrong set of statistics, namely the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, which details reported sexual assaults. Since only about 40% of all rapes in the US are reported, and this rate has been trending up, the UCR is worthless. The study actually uses the National Crime Victimization Survey, which blunts most of Ann’s criticisms.

That said, from what it seems, the study has two major weaknesses. First, while the American rape rate has decreased more than the general violent crime rate, it generally follows general violent crime trends. There are two exceptions, 1980-1985 and 2000-2005, when rape fell without a general decrease. I think it’s an excellent idea to investigate what happened in 1980 and 2000, but increased porn consumption probably isn’t it.

And second, the state data is a farce. Can you say “mediating variable”? More poverty leads to less net access and more rape.

Really, so far the evidence suggests that porn is connected to rape like ice cream consumption is connected to watching reality shows.